When to ‘Play’ Offense, Defense, or bring in the Special Teams?
There are times when a portfolio should be on 'offense’, at other times play ‘defense’ while in other time periods, it requires bringing out the 'special teams’. Much of this is dependent upon several factors to include, but not limited to:
1.) Economic activity: GDP growth, employment, wage growth, recessions, just to name a few.
2.) Valuations: Where are markets on the valuation scale, undervalued, fair valued, overvalued? What are valuations telling us about the potential for future returns? Remember, the more overvalued a market is today, the lower future returns will be. And of course, the opposite, the more undervalued a market is today, the higher future returns will be.
Just as in the game of football, sometimes our portfolios should lean toward one team versus another, as conditions require.
There are essentially three ways to construct one's investment portfolio, using one or all three asset allocation strategies. The football analogy is helpful to drive home the point.